Original market reaction analysis

From the event candle, BTC moved +0.37% in 5 minutes, -0.22% in 15 minutes and -0.56% in one hour. Volume was 2.0 times its prior three-hour average, while pre-event RSI(14) at 75.2 indicated a short-term overbought. Liquidations in the 15-minute observation window were $800K long and $6.6M short.

Returns compare the opening price of the five-minute candle containing the announcement with the close of 1, 3 and 12 candles. They may differ from exact timestamp returns. RSI uses only completed pre-event candles.

These measurements show timing and correlation, not proof of sole causation.

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